Authors | Jaime Ramos, Raquel C. Pico
Mobility has experienced a revolution this decade, targeting the very heart of the industry. The centenary supremacy of combustion engines is swaying, with the general boom of new forms of alternative mobility and, specifically, electric cars.
Diesel-powered models are the first to feel the effects of this change. Manufacturers have used up almost all the improvement margins in terms of their technology. The final blow for these engines has come with the anti-diesel policies, which seek to extinguish them because of the harmful effects of their emissions, not only for the environment, but also on health. Scandals through the manipulation of pollution figures, have ended with the coup de grâce at a time when the industry is looking for a new direction.
The scope of this trend is global, but the situations are different depending on what part of the world we look at. Although countries such as Japan removed them from their roads some time back, authorities in the European Union have set themselves the mission of putting out the flame that is keeping diesel alive as soon as possible. This will not be easy after decades of directly or indirectly promoting diesel engines.
Alternatives to the diesel engine
Although most of the discussion focuses on phasing out diesel engines, they are not the only type of combustion engine. Even if diesel vehicles were to disappear, petrol-powered cars would still remain, and they continue to hold a significant share of the market. In fact, using the distribution of vehicle types in a country like Spain as an example, 58.9 percent of cars have diesel engines and 33.8 percent run on petrol. These figures are taken from the most recent annual ANFAC report, the 2024 edition. Electric vehicles continue to represent just 1.6 percent of the fleet.
However, stopping the sale of diesel vehicles could encourage people to look for alternatives that are much more eco-friendly and sustainable. The European regulations aiming to remove diesel engines from the roads also include petrol cars.
The diesel alternatives being considered in terms of implementation are:
Battery electric vehicles
They operate on electricity and are plugged in to charge their batteries. If a renewable energy source is used, driving becomes completely clean. Although electric vehicles have gained range in recent years, they still have not fully matched the average range of petrol vehicles.
Fuel cell electric vehicles
They are powered by hydrogen, which is converted to electricity in the fuel cell rather than being burned. They do not produce pollution, as they only emit water vapor and hot air.
LPG or CNG vehicles
These types of engines emit 75% less NOx compared to most diesel engines, and the refueling stations for both gases are abundant. This makes LPG and CNG vehicles excellent alternatives to diesel and petrol.
Hybrid cars
They sit halfway between traditional cars and electric vehicles since they combine a combustion engine with an electric motor. This allows them to reduce the footprint of driving by lowering fuel consumption, while giving them greater range than an electric vehicle. They can be plug-in or non-plug-in. Still, under the European diesel phaseout rules, they are not considered fully clean, although that point is currently at the center of the debate.
Diesel in Europe: the facts
The European diesel engine in numbers
Greater environmental awareness has put the spotlight in recent decades on transportation, which is responsible for a significant share of emissions. The auto industry closed the last century with promises of cleaner combustion vehicles, while legislative measures were being planned to promote greener roads.
The good intentions ended up taking shape in more specific measures after the serious Dieselgate scandal, in which the Volkswagen group was found to have concealed the real emissions of its vehicles. This has led to a series of penalties being applied to these models. In this regard, city councils in major cities such as Madrid or Paris, and even entire countries such as Norway, have considered banning them in the medium term.
In 2023, 12,847,481 cars were sold in Europe. Notably, for the first time, electric vehicles surpassed diesel vehicles in market share, holding 15.7% (up from 13.9% in 2022) compared to diesel’s 11.9% (down from 14.5% in 2022).
In total, diesel model sales have been declining for eight years. While diesel accounted for 55 percent of registrations in 2012, in the first nine months of 2025 it made up only 9.3 percent of those recorded in the European Union, according to ACEA figures. This represented a year-over-year drop of 24.7 percent. Hybrids, on the other hand, closed the period with an EU market share of 34.7 percent, with particularly notable growth in France (+28.8%), Spain (+28.1%), Germany (+10.6%), and Italy (+9.2%). Although their market share is still smaller, electric cars have also gained ground. They now account for 16.1% of new registrations in Europe.
Is diesel banned in Europe?
Contrary to what some people think, diesel fuel has not been banned in Europe. Not yet. On the contrary, it is still readily available and used by millions of drivers each day, not to mention it will remain vital in order to power generators, tractors and countless industrial applications.
However, the adoption of the stringent Euro 6 standard, coupled with the expansion of zero-emission zones and the reduction of certain subsidies, mean that diesel cars will die a slow death. Developing new diesel vehicles is becoming tougher and tougher, to the point that most manufacturers are phasing them out instead of investing billions just to keep them alive for a few more years.
At the end of 2023, the Euro 7 standard was approved, setting the NOx limit for diesel vehicles at 80 mg/km. It is initially scheduled to take effect in 2025 for light vehicles (cars and vans) and in 2027 for heavy vehicles. However, its implementation will be delayed by two more years, until 2027 for light vehicles and 2029 for heavy vehicles.
Changes include that new vehicles will have to meet emissions requirements for a longer duration and/or distance. While the Euro 6 standard set the limit at 5 years or 100,000 km, the Euro 7 standard requires these levels to be maintained for 10 years or 200,000 km.
However, the approval of the Euro 7 has given the industry some breathing room regarding diesel, particularly for small models. The initial proposal, which required a 50% reduction in NOx emissions, would have necessitated the adoption of catalytic converters that would increase costs to the point of making manufacturing unfeasible.
When will diesel be banned in Europe?
Europe already has regulations setting a date for the end of new combustion-engine vehicle sales. Parliament approved it in February 2023, it later received the Council’s approval, and it became law in April of the same year. Starting in 2035, all cars and vans sold on the EU new-vehicle market will have to be emissions-free in order to achieve carbon-neutral transport by 2050. This is the timeline for phasing out diesel, although in reality it will not be the only technology affected.
Some countries have set their own goals, however. Denmark wants to end sales of new internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles by 2030, and the city of Copenhagen will test extensive zero-emission zones from 2023 that will mean a de facto diesel ban.
Stockholm, the capital of Sweden, has approved a regulation banning petrol and diesel cars from entering the city center to reduce pollution and emissions. This regulation will take effect on December 31, 2024.
Other countries may follow as electric vehicles gain market share and banning diesel becomes less of a political issue. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, combined with the semiconductor crisis, impacted the automotive market, altering sales patterns and halting commercial operations. Eventually, this could affect the complete ban on the sale of new combustion engine vehicles.
In any case, and despite the expected phaseout of new sales, the regulations approved in 2023 acknowledged that there is already a fleet of both diesel and petrol vehicles. In fact, the Parliament’s official website confirms: “If you buy a new car now, you can drive it until the end of its lifespan.” Used combustion vehicles can also continue to be sold even after 2035, and fuel access points will remain available.
Is the diesel ban realistic?
Although this is what the regulation says, the reality is far more complex. Pressure from automotive industry lobbies, differing positions among EU member states, and even shifts in the geopolitical landscape could affect the diesel ban and its timeline. In fact, they already are. The diesel and petrol phaseout could end up being much more lenient than expected or follow a different schedule.
In recent months, there has been extensive discussion about reviewing the implementation dates and increasing flexibility in phasing out combustion engines. Various leaks reported by the automotive press suggest that the sales ban could be pushed beyond 2035 (one proposed date is 2040) or that the list of “clean vehicles” could be expanded to include those using alternative fuels or hybrid models.
The debate is in full swing, as both France and Spain have already stated that they do not accept some of these potential new positions.
Benefits of phasing out diesel engines
What will be the benefits of getting rid of diesel?
Cities and urban environments will be the first to notice the difference gaining streets free of toxic fumes. The elimination of the layers of pollution is an attempt to alleviate the 400,000 + premature deaths per year in Europe as a result of transport-related emissions. This also entails high healthcare costs. At a continental level, we could be talking about hundreds of billions of euros.
Cities and urban environments will be the first to notice the difference. The elimination of the layers of pollution is an attempt to alleviate the 400,000 + premature deaths per year in Europe as a result of transport-related emissions. This also entails high healthcare costs. At a continental level, we could be talking about hundreds of billions of euros.
Freeing ourselves of diesel models would mean reducing the effects that nitrogen oxides (NOx and NO2) or suspended particles (PM) have on health. It will also entail structural changes in urban mobility. We can safely say that we are just about feeling the advantages of electric, connected, shared and autonomous vehicles.
Another concern is trucks, which account for 25% of road transport emissions in the EU. In 2022, approximately 327,000 new medium and heavy motor vehicles in Europe were diesel-powered. Undoubtedly, diesel is the most widely used fuel in this segment, as it represented around 96% of the market share last year.
Given its prevalence, European legislators have established CO2 targets for heavy vehicles that will phase out nearly all sales of new diesel trucks by 2040. Manufacturers will be required to reduce the average emissions of new trucks by 45% by 2030, 65% by 2035, and 90% by 2040.
A PAINFUL REVOLUTION FOR OUR PURSES?
The benefits may not be so attractive, depending on locations. Although the advantages of doing away with diesel are undeniable from a scientific point of view, the withdrawal policies have encountered strong political and economic opposition in some countries.
The reasons for this lie in revealing who will assume the costs of this transition in mobility. It will, undoubtedly, affect manufacturers and therefore, workers in the automotive sector. Likewise, the punishment by the authorities in relation to diesel, translates, in some countries, regions and cities, into an increase in the price of fuel.
All of this has an impact on the most underprivileged social groups, who cannot pay the price of joining this revolution. Perhaps the owner of SUV with a V6 diesel engine can afford to renew their vehicle when the time comes; but many low-income workers will really struggle when it comes to replacing their modest subcompact cars that are very cheap to maintain but with a high replacement cost. And we are talking about millions of vehicles.
Perhaps programs such as Spain’s MOVES III, which incentivize electric mobility, particularly the purchase of electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, could significantly boost the transition towards zero-emission vehicles. These grants range from 7,000 to 9,000 euros for commercial vehicles up to 3,500 kg, and from 4,500 to 7,000 euros for cars, providing substantial financial support for consumers.
Reducing this negative effect involves an inclusive strategy for the transport sector. The doubt remains as to whether the market will be able to adjust with subsidies and support or if new public transport plans will be required or even new and fresh policies, like those that normally emerge during emergency situations.
Images | iStock/Vladographer, Marius Matuschzik, Ernest Ojeh
