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Global birthrate decline: examining trends across Asia, Africa, and the USA

Friday, July 26, 2024

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Autor | Elvira Esparza

In 2050, more than three quarters of the countries will not have a sufficient fertility rate to cover the generational replacement of the population in the long term and there will be a greater division between rich and poor countries. While the population in richer regions will decline, it is expected to double in lower-income regions.

According to a study published by The Lancet, the global fertility rate has decreased from 4.8 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 today, and it is projected to drop further to 1.8 by 2050. If the fertility rate drops below 2.1, it indicates that the population size is starting to decline.

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the global fertility rate will gradually decrease in the coming years due to increased access to contraceptive methods worldwide, as well as the rise in education among women and their incorporation into the workforce.

What are the consequences of a declining population?

The consequences of a globally declining population can be both positive and negative. On the positive side, there could be a reduction in carbon emissions. However, on the negative side, the majority of births are concentrated in poorer countries, potentially exacerbating economic and social inequalities. In fact, forecasts suggest that by 2100, 3 in 4 children will be born in low-income countries, which will have significant economic consequences.

On the other hand, in high-income countries, the drop in fertility rates will lead to a reduction in the labor force, as there will be fewer working-age adults to support the needs of an increasingly aged population, which is also expected to live longer. Therefore, policies will need to be designed with a focus on social security and healthcare to meet the needs of this aging population.

What will happen to the world’s most populous countries?

The situation in the world’s most populous countries is varied. In some of these countries, the fertility rate has decreased, jeopardizing population growth. Conversely, in others, the fertility rate remains high, leading to significant population increases that require the implementation of control measures.

India

With 1.441 billion inhabitants, India has surpassed China in the global population ranking, becoming the world’s most populous country, according to IMF figures. However, despite the population increase, the fertility rate in India is also slowing down. It has dropped below the replacement rate, now at 2 births per woman.

India has a young population, with more than 40% of its citizens under the age of 25, according to a report by the Pew Research Center. The problem is that the working-age population lacks sufficient education to access quality jobs, particularly among women. Despite this, India benefits from the demographic dividend, with a significant portion of the population being of working age, offering substantial economic potential.

China

In China, the one-child policy implemented in 1979 did not significantly impact the fertility rate, as it had already declined due to improved living conditions. However, the one-child policy led to a gender imbalance favoring men, making it difficult for many men, especially those in lower-income households, to find partners and have children. In terms of birth rates, China, with 7.52 births per 1,000 inhabitants, falls below India, which has 16.42, and the United States, which has 11.06.

To boost birth rates, China allowed citizens to have two children starting in 2016, and this was extended to three children in 2021. Furthermore, economic incentives, subsidies, and parental leave policies have been approved to alleviate financial burdens, as one of the reasons for the drop in birth rates is the high cost of living. The decline in birth rates has resulted in an aging population and a shrinking workforce, potentially slowing the country’s economic growth.

United States

The United States is experiencing a population decline due to falling birth rates, which reached a historic low in 2023, with an average of 2.1 children per woman. Birth rates in the United States have been following a declining trend for years, with a slight increase observed only after the pandemic. The decline in fertility rates is attributed to several factors, including the lack of support for families, the high cost of housing and education, and changing attitudes towards maternity. The problem is that with fewer young people entering the workforce, the country’s economy is being negatively impacted.

To address the population decrease, the United States is focusing on immigration policies to meet labor requirements and counteract the aging population. They have also approved grants for families to boost birth rates, as well as parental leave, childcare subsidies, and access to reproductive services.

Nigeria

Sub-Saharan African countries are bucking the trend with high fertility rates, and it is expected that by 2100, more than half of the world’s births will occur in that region. The sub-Saharan African population is expected to triple, reaching over three billion people by 2100.

Within this region is Nigeria, currently occupying the sixth position in the United Nations global population ranking with approximately 230 million inhabitants. By 2100, it is projected to become the third most populous country in the world, with a population of 791 million. The total fertility rate in Nigeria is expected to be 5 children per woman by 2050. However, if the 2030 universal education objective, part of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, is achieved, this rate could drop to 2.7 children per woman by 2050. Additionally, universal access to contraceptives could reduce the rate to 4.3 children per woman.

Indonesia

Indonesia, with 280 million inhabitants, and Pakistan, with 245 million, have also reduced their fertility rates. In Indonesia, the fertility rate is 2.18, though it remains higher in rural areas. To address this imbalance, family planning programs have been launched to facilitate access to contraceptive methods, alongside initiatives to promote women’s education and professional development.

Additionally, policies are being implemented to manage urban growth and prevent the uncontrolled expansion of cities. This includes the development of a new capital in Nusantara, approximately 1,000 kilometers from overpopulated Jakarta. Nusantara has been designed as a city focused on sustainable development and low carbon emissions.

Pakistan

In Pakistan, the fertility rate stands at 3.4, while the birth rate exceeds 27 per 1,000 inhabitants. Consequently, the population will continue to grow in the coming years, although the birth rate has declined in recent years. Hence, there is a need to develop social well-being programs, improve the quality of life for families, and enhance access to reproductive health services and family planning to control population growth.