Author | Raquel C. Pico

The number of forest fires is growing each year. This phenomenon is occurring worldwide and can have devastating consequences for both the planet and its inhabitants. Statistics indicate that wildfires are worsening: according to the World Resources Institute, twice as many trees are burning today compared to 20 years ago. In addition to a 2022 projection by the United Nations Environmental Program, which estimated a 14% increase in forest fires by 2030, a 30% increase by 2050, and a 50% increase by the end of the century. The inevitability of a super-fire seems increasingly likely.

This upward trend carries significant consequences, particularly in certain regions where it could be catastrophic. Scientists are already warning that global wildfires impact El Niño, altering weather patterns and rainfall distribution. In Asia, this could result in extended periods of drought.

Similarly, fires exacerbate climate change. Its impact on air pollution carries significant consequences. To comprehend why more forests and mountains are burning, one must consider the effects of climate change, creating a vicious circle. The consequences of climate change fuel fires, which in turn worsen the emergency. Air pollution contributes to heightened atmospheric pollution.

Cost for Asia

All of these factors contribute to more intense fires, including super-fires, escalating the potential for catastrophic consequences. The list of devastating events, including solar storms and other apocalyptic scenarios, must also include large-scale fires.

A super-fire has the potential to destroy vast amounts of land, risking the loss of critical ecosystems and incurring substantial indirect economic and human costs. For instance, a super-fire in the Siberian forests could impact the entirety of Asia, as highlighted by researchers at the University of Hokkaido in Japan in a recent study. To reach their conclusions, scientists analyzed data from a super-fire in 2003, but projecting even more severe scenarios.

For Asian countries, this could result in increased atmospheric pollution, exacerbating respiratory diseases or even causing temperature drops. In human terms, this could lead to an additional 23,000 deaths annually in Japan, 6,000 in China, and 4,800 in South Korea. Economic losses would also be significant, ranging from $83.8 billion for the most affected country (Japan) to $15.3 billion for the least affected (Russia).

Nevertheless, although this exact scenario has not yet unfolded, wildfires have profoundly negative effects on the quality of life across the continent, undoubtedly impacting urban areas.

An urban problem

Initially, one might assume that wildfires do not affect cities. After all, it is easy to assume that they primarily affect rural areas and the countryside, not urban centers with their streets and buildings. However, the reality is quite different. These increasingly frequent super-fires incur costs for cities, both directly and indirectly.

One of the most recent examples that illustrates this is the super wildfire that devastated Quebec, Canada, during the summer of 2023. The emissions from the fire caused air quality in New York to plummet, posing health risks, and the smoke even darkened the skies of Western Europe, crossing the Atlantic. Fires respect no borders. Their flames can leap across international borders, and their smoke, emissions, and pollution can extend far beyond their geographical origin.

For cities, this means that even though fires occur outside their immediate vicinity, they are still impacted. According to an analysis by the World Economic Forum, wildfires impact cities by deteriorating air quality, exacerbating climate change, heightening the risk of flooding, threatening water reserves, and causing economic losses. This phenomenon occurs worldwide, but it is particularly concerning in Asian cities, as it exacerbates some of their existing and most pressing issues. Issues such as air quality are already a significant challenge: a recent IQAir study concluded that 100 of the cities with the worst air quality are located in Asia.

In addition to urban pollution resulting from the use of fossil fuels, another issue in the region is the occurrence of toxic fog experienced by countries like Indonesia or Malaysia. Southeast Asia holds 40% of the world’s peatland. Drought and deforestation, driven by the expansion of palm oil plantations among others, are weakening their ability to resist fires. When peatlands burn, they produce a toxic fog or smog, because peat, which is abundant in these areas, serves as fuel. This smog reaches cities and further exacerbates their air pollution.

It also impacts mental health. Anxiety and sadness intensify, as evidenced by a study conducted by MIT on the effects of wildfires in Southeast Asia. This occurs not only in the directly affected areas but also in those impacted by the aftermath, including cities. “It has a substantial negative impact on people’s subjective well-being,” says Siqi Zheng, an MIT professor and co-author of the paper. “This is a big effect.”

The costs of the future

In a report from a few years ago, the UN already warned that traditional methods for combating wildfires were not effective. They warned that failing to stop these super-fires could have devastating effects on both human health and the planet.

For cities, it would exacerbate their current problems and potentially create new ones. The intensification of climate change is closely linked to the displacement of people. Though often overlooked, this consequence is central to migration patterns. For cities, this would result in increased demographic pressure in the future. The largest refugee camp is already located in an Asian city.

Similarly, super-fires decimate forests, reducing their capacity to absorb CO2. The death of trees and green areas, such as the tundra, releases stored carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, creating a new problem. Furthermore, deforestation drives wildlife into human-inhabited areas, increasing the risk of new diseases and health crises by bringing vectors into contact with potential victims, similar to what occurred during the pandemic. Given the high population density in many Asian cities, such a scenario could be devastating.

Images | Photoholgic, Matt Howard